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Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker- November 2024

In the final edition of the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker for 2024, Scotland’s economic outlook is more pessimistic than it has been in recent months. Messaging from the Prime Minister, that things will get worse before they get better, has clearly resonated with the public. This has likely amplified existing concerns, contributing to a notable shift in how Scots view their economic prospects. There has been a marked increase in the number of people who believe economic conditions will worsen in the coming year, indicating that the recent UK Budget has not driven renewed confidence among the public.

Scots also report the impact of money matters on their work life, home life and health as three in ten report losing sleep over money and one in three report impacts on their mental health.

Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker is produced in partnership with the David Hume Institute.

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5 Key Takeaways

This edition of Understanding Scotland brings you insights from over 2,200 members of the adult (16+) Scottish public on the most important aspects of our society and economy.

1. Economic Sentiment Worsens Amid Gloomy Outlook for the Future

Economic pessimism is deepening, with 63% of Scots now saying that general economic conditions have worsened over the past year, up nine percentage points from the last wave. Nearly half (48%) report that their own personal financial circumstances have worsened. Looking ahead, 65% expect things to deteriorate further over the next 12 months, a 13 percentage point increase. This sentiment is mirrored in personal financial outlooks, with 44% predicting their own finances will worsen, a seven percentage point rise. This suggests that the Prime Minister’s warnings that things will get worse before they get better has landed with Scots.

2. Healthcare and Cost of Living Still Top Concerns Despite Declining Focus

Healthcare and the cost of living remain the dominant issues for Scots, with 47% and 34% respectively identifying them as key priorities. However, both have seen notable declines in concern since August, with healthcare dropping by four percentage points and cost of living by two. Over the past year, the focus on cost of living has shifted significantly, falling from 42% in November 2023. Other concerns like poverty, education, and political trust remain steady, while younger Scots (aged 16 to 34) are more likely to prioritise climate change (16%) than older Scots (7%).

3. Lifestyle Adjustments as Scots Respond to Financial Pressures

The financial strain facing Scots has led to significant lifestyle changes, with over half cutting back on leisure activities (54%), reducing energy use (53%), and trimming non-essential spending (52%). Families with children are particularly affected, reporting higher levels of financial distress and altering household habits to cope. Older age groups are also cutting back but report these changes less frequently than younger Scots.

4. Financial Pressures Taking a Toll on Mental and Physical Health

Money concerns are significantly affecting the health and wellbeing of Scots, with nearly a third (32%) reporting a negative impact on their mental health. Younger Scots aged 16–34 are particularly affected, with almost half (47%) citing mental health impacts, compared to 14% of those aged 65 and older. Financial stress is also linked to lost sleep (29%), strained relationships (17%), and reduced access to fresh, nutritious food, with 28% of Scots buying less fresh produce. Households with children are more likely to report the impacts of financial pressures than households without.

5. Strong Support for Sustainable Growth and Living Standards as Economic Priorities

Public opinion remains firm that Scotland’s economy should focus on improving living standards and wellbeing, with 85% agreeing this should be the main focus of the economy. Scots are also overwhelmingly in favour of environmentally responsible economic growth, with 70% stating that growth should not come at the expense of the climate. The perception that the economy primarily serves the wealthy remains high at 75%, but has decreased slightly over the past year.