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Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker – May 2026

This wave of the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker comes immediately after the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, capturing public attitudes at a moment of political reset and ongoing economic pressure. The findings present a clear and more downbeat picture of the public mood than in recent waves.

Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker is produced in partnership with the David Hume Institute.

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5 Key Takeaways

This edition of Understanding Scotland brings you insights from a representative sample of over 2,000 adults (16+) across Scotland on the most important aspects of our society and economy.

COST OF LIVING IS ONCE AGAIN THE DEFINING ISSUE

For the first time in nearly three years, the cost of living and inflation has overtaken healthcare and the NHS as the most important issue facing Scotland. Nearly half (47%) select cost of living and inflation as one of their top three issues, up four percentage points since February and a substantial nine percentage points since November. A similar proportion (46%) select healthcare/the NHS as a top issue facing Scotland, down a minor two percentage points from last wave. Cost of living has also become the top local priority, selected by half (50%) this wave, compared to 43% in February.

ECONOMIC SENTIMENT HAS DETERIORATED SHARPLY

Assessments of both the economy and personal finances have worsened markedly this wave. Over three in four (77%) say the economy is worse than a year ago, up from 62% in February, while a similar proportion (73%) expect conditions to deteriorate further in the year ahead.

FINANCIAL PRESSURES CONTINUE TO SHAPE BEHAVIOUR

Over half of Scots have cut back on leisure activities (54%) and reduced non-essential spending (52%) as a result of concerns about money matters in the last year. Slightly more are reporting that they are cutting back on leisure activities (up four percentage points), saving less than usual (up two percentage points) and dipping into savings for higher costs (up two percentage points), as concerns with the cost of living are renewed.

MEASURES OF FINANCIAL FRAGILITY REVEAL A MIXED PICTURE

Indicators relating to housing costs and the job market have weakened slightly. Six in ten (61%) of those expressing an opinion say they are confident in their ability to meet higher housing costs over the next six months, down three percentage points on a year ago. Confidence in the job market is lower still, with just 43% believing they could find a new job within three months, a four-point decline over the same period. However, confidence in managing an unexpected £500 expense has increased, with 61% reporting that they are confident they could meet such an expense without taking a loan or borrowing, up five percentage points since May 2025 (excluding don’t knows/NAs).

OPTIMISM ON SCOTLAND’S DIRECTION REMAINS LIMITED

More Scots now say the country is heading in the right direction (30%, up four points), but a clear majority (54%) still believe it is on the wrong track, pointing to only modest improvement in underlying sentiment.