Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker – August 2024

This report is the first in the Understanding Scotland series since the UK General Election on July 4th, which ushered in a Labour government. Since then, the UK and its new government have seen significant challenges, including a wave of riots following the Southport attack, averted planned train strikes, and mounting fiscal concern around the upcoming budget. As Scotland grapples with these shocks, the findings presented here offer a timely snapshot of public sentiment, priorities, and challenges.

Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker is produced in partnership with the David Hume Institute.

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This report is the first in the Understanding Scotland series since the UK General Election on July 4th, which ushered in a Labour government. Since then, the UK and its new government have seen significant challenges, including a wave of riots following the Southport attack, averted planned train strikes, and mounting fiscal concern around the upcoming budget. As Scotland grapples with these shocks, the findings presented here offer a timely snapshot of public sentiment, priorities, and challenges.

The report presents shifting perceptions of Scotland’s direction, reflecting both lingering concerns and emerging uncertainties. While there has been a decrease in the proportion of Scots who believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, over half continue to believe that Scotland is heading in the wrong direction, and a growing proportion are unsure about the country’s direction, suggesting a populace still searching for clarity in uncertain times.

Healthcare remains at the forefront of public concern, though the decline in emphasis on the cost of living signals a subtle shift in priorities. The increasing prominence of issues like immigration and crime indicates that Scots are becoming more concerned with a wider range of issues. Future reports in this series will closely monitor this broadening of focus, as it reflects not only changing public sentiment but also the potential for emerging issues to shape the social and political landscape.

Economically, while there is an easing of the deep pessimism that has characterised the past two years, the data reveals that many Scots remain cautious. The ongoing struggle with financial fragility, particularly among households with children, underscores the uneven distribution of economic resilience across the country.

As rising costs continue to shape the daily lives of Scots, the adjustments in food choices highlight the practical realities faced by many. The shift towards more affordable, yet often less nutritious options is a sobering reminder of the pressures that persist despite improving economic indicators.

 

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This edition of Understanding Scotland brings you insights from over 2,200 members of the adult (16+) Scottish public on the most important aspects of our society and economy.

1.Negativity about Country’s Direction Falls; Uncertainty Remains

While a majority of Scots (56%) believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction, this figure marks a seven percentage point improvement from a peak of 62% in May. However, there has also been a four percentage point increase, to 23%, of Scots believing things are heading in the right direction and a rise of three percentage points, to 22%, of Scots now unsure about Scotland’s direction.

2.Healthcare Holds Steady, but Cost of Living Concerns Decline

Healthcare continues to dominate as the most pressing issue for Scots, with just over half (51%) citing it as a top concern. In contrast, worries about the cost of living have notably eased, with only 36% of Scots now identifying it as a top issue – a significant drop from 48% in August 2023. Meanwhile, other issues such as immigration and crime have gained traction, perhaps responding to recent events and reflecting a broader diversification of public priorities.

3. Economic Pessimism Eases, but Challenges Persist

After years of economic pessimism, there are glimmers of hope on the horizon. The proportion of Scots who believe that the general economic situation has worsened over the past year has dropped dramatically by 12 percentage points to 54%. Despite this improvement, many still perceive economic conditions as stagnating, with the percentage of those that think general economic conditions are about the same now as they were 12 months ago up 11 percentage points to 35% of Scots, underscoring ongoing economic challenges.

4. Financial Fragility Remains Despite Growing Confidence

There are signs of increasing confidence among Scots in their ability to handle unexpected expenses. Three in four Scots (75%) that express an opinion now feel confident they could cover a £100 emergency expense without borrowing, a slight improvement since November 2023. However, deep financial fragility persists, particularly among households with children. One in three (33%) households with children are not confident they could meet an emergency expense of £100 without borrowing and six in ten (58%) are not confident they could meet an emergency expense of £500, highlighting the uneven distribution of economic resilience.

5. Rising Costs Reshape Dietary Choices for Many Scots

The rising cost of living is leaving a marked impact on how Scots feed themselves, with many forced to make difficult choices about their diet. A significant number are cutting back on takeaways (60%) and opting for cheaper food options (45%) to save money. These two behaviours are particularly high among households with children, at 67% and 55% respectively. Those in deprived areas are amongst the hardest hit, with higher rates of almost all food-related behaviours. Only one in five people (22%) report that rising prices have not affected their food choices.